A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
